The agreement also makes clear that this is the maximum amount of time that U.S. troops can remain in Iraq, and permits an earlier withdrawal, if either the U.S. or Iraqi governments desire it, stating: "The United States recognizes the sovereign right of the government of Iraq to request the departure of the United States forces from Iraq at any time. The Government of Iraq recognizes the sovereign right of the United States to withdraw the United States forces from Iraq at any time."
The possibility of an earlier withdrawal should provide clear direction for those of us in the U.S. peace movement: our job is to continue to bring pressure from our side for a complete and rapid withdrawal, to get the U.S. government to exercise the "escape clause" so clearly spelled out above.
Setting aside the question of the timetable, there are some very positive aspects to the agreement:
-- The agreement eliminates the grant of legal immunity given to U.S. "military contractors", or mercenaries by U.S. consul Paul Bremer in 2003. These hired gunmen can now be arrested by Iraqi police and prosecuted by Iraqi courts, and the agreement may even permit the Iraqi government to prosecute crimes by U.S, mercenaries that were committed before the agreement was passed by the Parliament.
-- The agreement requires the U.S. to withdraw all forces from Iraqi towns and cities by June 30, 2009. All missions by U.S. troops would require approval of the Iraqi government, and U.S. forces could not conduct any house raid or arrest any person without a warrant issued by an Iraqi court.
-- The agreement prohibits any attacks by the U.S. on other countries without the consent of the Iraqi government. Raids like the recent cross-border attack by U.S. special forces on a farm on the Syrian side of the Syria-Iraq border would be prohibited, as would any U.S. raids or attacks on Iran.
Of course, these positive provisions are meaningless if they are not enforced. There is an important role for the U.S. peace movement, working with our counterparts in Iraqi civil society, to publicize here in the U.S. any violations of the agreement by our own goverment. U.S. compliance over the short term will also be motivated by an important change won by opponents of the pact: the agreement must be submitted to the people of Iraq for approval by referendum by July of 2009. Since the U.S. government will want a "yes" vote on the agreement (which is by no means assured) it is more likely to abide closely by the agreement's provisions, at least over the next six months.
What are others in the peace movement saying about the agreement? Iraqi activist Raed Jarrar, of American Friends Service Committee, has been very critical of the process by which the agreeement was negotiated and approved, noting that the Iraqi constitution requires a two-thirds majority to ratify treaties, while Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki claimed that only a simple majority was required (it should be noted that many of Iraq's 275 members of Parliament no longer live in Iraq or attend Parliament - due to the security situation - so the 149 "yes" votes for the agreement constitute a slim majority of the total Parliament.)
Below, Raed comments on the agreement on Iranian TV. I was struck by his claim that for most Iraqis, the idea of a "complete" withdrawal (which the agreement provides) is more important that the idea of "immediate" withdrawal.
Tom Hayden has also written frequently on the agreement, taking a very critical stance. Initially, his position was that the agreement was an attempt by the Bush administration to "tie the hands" of the incoming President. He has become less emphatic on this point as successive drafts of the agreement have been released, although his most recent commentary includes the claim that, under the agreement, "President-elect Obama will be acquiescing in a doubling of his 16 month deadline for withdrawal of combat troops." It's hard to see how this is the case, given that the agreement clearly gives the U.S. the right to withdraw its troops from Iraq "at any time."
Hayden sees the agreement as a "challenge for the anti-war movement", writing, "Unless the pact is violated, it is difficult to imagine hundreds of thousands demonstrating to bring the troops home in 2010 instead of 2011," and, "... the steady return of thousands of American soldiers will send a powerful message to most Americans that the Iraq War is ending, perhaps not soon enough, but ending nonetheless."
How should the peace movement meet the challenge that Tom Hayden sees ahead? I'll write more on this subject later, but please feel free to leave your own ideas in comments.
Steve Burns is Program Coordinator of Wisconsin Network for Peace and Justice.